We are heading straight for the end of the hot engine in Europe, but other manufacturers must already be racking their brains. Not to produce electric cars (a task that is already very difficult to accomplish in a short time), but instead to try to respond better to the “CO2” targets set by the European Union. A little reminder on this subject: the automotive industry, as a whole, has to tick certain boxes. According to the WLTP cycle, the average of all cars sold by all major manufacturers must be less than 116 g/km of CO2 in the period 2021/2024 (for math enthusiasts, the text of the law with the equation for calculating this limit. it is here, in “appendix 1”) More precisely, the average is 95 g/km, but it is calculated on the old NEDC cycle which is no longer used. To convert this value into the new WLTP cycle, we must consider an increase of approximately 21%, which gives us the famous 116 g/km. The limits that will not be exceeded by the industry will therefore be the following (WLTP figures):
- From 2021 to 2024: 116 g/km CO2 maximum
- From 2025 to 2030: 98 g/km of CO2 maximum
- From 2030: 81 g/km CO2 maximum
That, then, for the average of all producers. But at the same time, each group of cars, or “pool” (one or more groups of vehicles brought together to pool their CO2 emissions)has its own personal goal, which depends mainly on the average weight of the cars sold (the heavier they are, the higher the limit and thus reached). And there, not everyone will be able to sit on the nails.
Several manufacturers will have a “CO2” fine.
Other manufacturers are faced with a difficult equation to solve: how to produce enough electric cars not exceeding the goals set by Europe? Especially when the catalog still includes a few cars with low CO2 emissions. Moreover, Europe always makes “gifts” with better loans. In fact, any vehicle registered with less than 50 g/km of CO2 is counted twice in 2020. But this factor increased to 1.67 in 2021, then 1.33 in 2022 before reaching parity with other vehicles in 2023.. Those who have bet heavily on plug-in hybrids as a transitional technology to compensate for the lack of clean electricity will pay a heavy price if they are unable to put thousands of electric cars on the road. Indeed, in Europe, each gram of CO2 over the limit costs € 95 … an increase in the number of vehicles registered during the past year!
And according to the analysis company Dataforce, we already know the names of the future victims: Volkswagen, Seat, Nissan, and Dacia have to exceed their personal CO2 targets in 2022.. Ford and Skoda may also be in the same situation. Several headwinds are not helping these manufacturers who have not been able to reduce their CO2 emissions faster: the rise in the price of metals to make batteries for electric cars, which clearly reduces the possibility of sales of “zero” emission vehicles, and the reduction or even elimination of bonuses and shopping facilities in certain countries. And then, for Dacia, it is also impossible to maintain the business model of reaching cars by going electric or on very electric engines.