© Reuters.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs revised its outlook on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: ), lowering its price target on the electric car maker to $190 from the previous $220, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the market. The revision reflects concerns over production challenges and market conditions that could affect Tesla’s performance.
The company cited several factors for the adjustment, including ramping up Model 3 production and disruptions at the Berlin plant due to the Red Sea conflict and associated energy losses.
Additionally, delivery estimates in key regions for the first two months of the quarter, as reported by third parties such as the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) and Automotive Intelligence, show a mixed picture with year-over-year increases. of high numbers and decrease of low double digits quarter over quarter.
Goldman Sachs has revised its delivery estimates, now expecting Tesla to deliver 435,000 vehicles in the first quarter, up from a previous estimate of 475,000. The forecast for total vehicle shipments in 2024 has also been lowered to 1.98 million, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year, from the previous expectation of 2.08 million.
The company’s analysis includes preliminary data, such as a steady decline in Tesla app downloads in the US and Europe when comparing the first two months of the first quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2023. Year-to-date downloads are reported too. down compared to the same period last year, according to Sensor Tower data. Additionally, exports from Tesla’s Chinese factory saw year-over-year declines for January and February combined.
Goldman Sachs’ updated 12-month price target of $190 is based on 50 times updated earnings per share (EPS) estimates, which include stock compensation (SBC). The company also outlined possible scenarios for Tesla stock, suggesting a potential upside of around $300 at a multiple of 50-60 times 2026 EPS estimates, and a downside in the range of around $65-$85 at a multiple of around 30 times mostly used for 2024 EPS Estimates.
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